The Blues are 10th in the Premier League and trail 1-0 going into Tuesday's last-16 second leg against Dortmund…
Chelsea enter their Champions League last-16 second leg against Borussia Dortmund with their season fraying at the seams.
A turgid run of form since the World Cup has seemingly condemned them to mid-table obscurity in the Premier League, they were eliminated early from both domestic cup competitions and they are staring down the barrel at the possibility of no European football next season for the first time since 2016-17.
To keep their slender Champions League hopes alive, they need to turn around a 1-0 deficit from the first leg. Chelsea weren't at Signal Iduna Park, especially by recent standards, but they still fell to defeat thanks to a spectacular goal by Karim Adeyemi.
The return leg at Stamford Bridge is massive, but even if they do get over the line, it would take a miracle greater than their unbelievable 2011-12 Champions League final triumph to ensure they are eating at European football's top table next term.
Should the expected come to pass and Chelsea do miss out on qualification, just how disastrous would it be for their development under Todd Boehly?
GOAL has taken a look at all of the implications below…
Getty ImagesLosing out on prize money
The prize money for participation in the 2023-24 Champions League group stages has not been confirmed, though it's safe to assume that it will be similar to that on offer this season.
This campaign, each of the 32 teams that qualified pocketed a cool £13.5 million ($16.3m) as a starting fee. Their performance then determined how much extra money they received. Clubs earned £2.4m ($2.9m) for a victory and £802,000 ($968,000) for a draw.
Totting up their results in the group stage, Chelsea would have received approximately £24m ($29m) from the Champions League group stage this season.
The further a team progresses, the more money they get, as the table below demonstrates.
Reaching the round of 16£8.2m ($9.9m)Reaching the quarter-finals£9.1m ($11m)Reaching the semi-finals£10.7m ($12.9m)Reaching the final£13.3m ($16m)Winning the final£3.8m ($4.6m)
It is estimated that Chelsea landed around £120m for their performances in the Champions League, Club World Cup and UEFA Super Cup in recent times. That's a big hole to plug if the money tap is turned off next season.
AdvertisementAdditional revenue streams
It is not just prize money that Chelsea stand to miss out on either.
What this figure does not include is the at least three additional home games that the club earned matchday revenue from, as well as additional European clauses in sponsorship deals.
There's also the issue of broadcasting money. While in the Champions League Chelsea would get a share of this revenue stream, which has decreased in importance thanks to the rise of so-called 'coefficient shares', but would still offer a very welcome boost.
This rule means clubs who have performed well in the competition over a 10-year period receive a larger slice of the financial pie. Chelsea would have been well placed to be towards the top of this table as they won the competition in 2020-21, adding an extra edge to the sting of likely failing to qualify this time around.
Getty ImagesDifficulties with sponsors
Their terrible on-field performance could not come at a worse time for Chelsea from a commercial perspective.
Back in 2020, the Blues penned a £120m ($145m) shirt sponsorship deal with telecommunications company Three. A lot has changed at the club since then. Most notably, there's been a change of ownership, with the UK government's decision to impose sanctions on Roman Abramovich leading to Three pausing their support of the club.
The Three deal is up at the end of the current campaign, as it is expected that Chelsea will seek a new shirt sponsor for the 2023-24 campaign.
Perhaps somewhat optimistically, the club had apparently been hopeful of attracting a deal even more lucrative than Man City's £67.5m-per-year agreement with Etihad.
Attempting to do that without having the prestige of Champions League football to attract partners will surely be impossible.
GettyBreaching FFP regulations?
Chelsea have splashed a frankly absurd £500m+ over the past two transfer windows and it's hard surprising that this lavish spending has raised serious concerns over whether they have breach financial rules.
A report from The Times published just hours after their January splurge ended did little to allay fears.
It was said that failing to qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League would leave the Blues in serious danger of breaking financial fair play. Chelsea were already being watched closely, having only escaped previous action due to allowances granted after the Covid-19 pandemic – and their liberal approach to transfer spending since then will have done little to get the footballing authorities off their backs.
The fact that the majority of Chelsea's new arrivals have signed lengthy contracts, which allows their transfer fees to be 'amortised' over several years – a practice that landed Juventus in hot water recently – has reduced some of the danger, but football finance expert Kieran Maguire still has serious concerns.
"Chelsea’s wage bill in 2021 was £333m and that was before the club had made an investment in a myriad of players on long-term contracts who are also presumably very well remunerated," he told .
“I think failure to qualify for the Champions League this season will mean that they will be very much on Uefa’s watchlist."